I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.
These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.
I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH):
Click image for larger view
Whether humans are the cause of 100% of the observed warming or not, the conclusion is that global warming isn’t as bad as was predicted. That should have major policy implications…assuming policy is still informed by facts more than emotions and political aspirations.
And if humans are the cause of only, say, 50% of the warming (e.g. our published paper), then there is even less reason to force expensive and prosperity-destroying energy policies down our throats.
I am growing weary of the variety of emotional, misleading, and policy-useless statements like “most warming since the 1950s is human caused” or “97% of climate scientists agree humans are contributing to warming”, neither of which leads to the conclusion we need to substantially increase energy prices and freeze and starve more poor people to death for the greater good.
Yet, that is the direction we are heading.
And even if the extra energy is being stored in the deep ocean (if you have faith in long-term measured warming trends of thousandths or hundredths of a degree), I say “great!”. Because that extra heat is in the form of a tiny temperature change spread throughout an unimaginably large heat sink, which can never have an appreciable effect on future surface climate.
If the deep ocean ends up averaging 4.1 deg. C, rather than 4.0 deg. C, it won’t really matter.
It’s true. This extremely scientific graph proves it:
You can see that as the number of pirates in the world has decreased over the past 130 years, global warming has gotten steadily worse. In fact, this makes it entirely clear that if you truly want to stop global warming, the most impactful thing to do is — become a pirate.
Hope you’re laughing. My husband told me this wonderful premise a few months ago, and I couldn’t resist sharing it with you, for a very specific reason. I’m fascinated by why it’s so funny. I believe it’s because it’s an only slightly more extreme version of the fake logic we hear every day — the conclusions that pass for critical thinking in these days of completely unleashed 24-7 communication. For example:
Someone who has cancer drinks gallons of lemon water and their cancer goes into remission: they create a website to talk about how lemon water cures cancer.
A business is doing badly and they move to a new building and things start to pick up: the CEO writes a book about how changing your environment is the key to success.
Statistics show that people who leave their jobs after less than a year are more likely to smoke: someone starts a campaign to reduce smoking by encouraging people to stay at their jobs longer.
My older sister, a very wise and smart woman who is a political scientist at Syracuse University, teaches a statistics class to freshmen, where she endeavors to teach them critical thinking. She talks about this as being the most common error in logic: confusing simultaneity with causality. In other words, assuming that because two things are happening at the same time, they exist in a cause and effect relationship with each other.
Because anyone can say anything anywhere these days (pretty much), there’s a lot of fuzzy thinking floating around that seems more legitimate than it would have in former times because it’s in print. Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m a huge proponent of free speech. I just feel we all have to be more discriminating than ever before about what we believe. Not cynical or negative: discriminating.
So, when someone proposes a cause and effect relationship between two things – reduction in pirates causing global warming; Obama creating the global economic crisis; young people ruining American business – ask for the data that shows they’re related, rather than simply that they’re happening at the same time.
But if you’re dead set on becoming a pirate, I’m not going to stop you.
President Obama held a press release which denied Snowden’s accusation that the US was engaging in chemtrail and HAARP activity to the detriment of the climate in other parts of the world.
WASHINGTON — Recent revelations from Snowden outlined a complex cloud weather modification project carried out by the classified High Altitude Auroral Research Project (HAARP) and the Jet Fuel Cloud Seeding Program (JFCSP) commonly known as Chemtrails. Wednesday, President Obama stunned the public in a press release admitting to decades of classified weather modification by the United States and promised to establish a permanent international independent oversight committee.
President Obama shocked the world with candid words, “Hundreds of countries are carrying out weather modification programs, and we’re doing it better than any of them. However, this has been secret for too long. The American People need to know about what we do to make sure our children have something to eat each and every year. It’s true we need more oversight for geoengineering projects, so I’ve signed an executive order establishing an international third party oversight group to not only investigate for abuse but also to keep the public informed about new and existing geoengineering programs.”
President Obama addressed the tough topic head-on, building a strong case for the weather modification programs while refuting concerns from activists, saying, “Geoengineering is necessary for our country’s agricultural industries and keeps millions of Americans employed every year. Our efforts in high altitude microwave technology at HAARP combined with the innovations in cloud seeding technology introduced by the jet fuel industry gives the American People a level of control over the elements unprecedented in the history of mankind. American Scientists are quickly approaching capabilities which will not only curb global climate change, but also to put an end to disastrous hurricanes and typhoons. For decades these programs have been kept secret out of concern for national security, but I have decided there is no need to keep this program a secret. Sensational reports that the United States will exist in a ‘bubble’ as the rest of the world heats up uncontrollably have no basis in scientific fact.”
Slowly, almost imperceptibly, but surely, the once diehard the-science-is-settled mainstream media are conceding that the climate debate isn’t over after all – and likely not by a long shot. And if you pay attention, you can see them quietly opening that back door for the quick exit.
The cracking started long ago, and now chips and pieces of the global warming science are starting to fall on the floor around us.
This report looks at the implications of a protracted quiet solar period, potentially lasting decades. Global cooling is turning out to be a real possibility, now even at the BBC!
Today we know a huge body of historical observations shows there is a pronounced relationship between cold winters in Europe and low solar activity. Moreover there’s a huge body of persuasive evidence, comprising mainly proxy datasets, that show the phenomenon is not regional, but global. As much as the BBC tries to play that down, the video holds a couple of big surprises.
Mirrors the Maunder Minimum!
The BBC starts by telling its viewers that the current solar maximum “is eerily quiet“. Solar physicist Professor Richard Harrison says the sun hasn’t been this quiet in 100 years and that the current activity mirrors the activity of the 17th century – the Maunder Minimum, the time of the dreadful Little Ice Age. What we have here is the BBC telling viewers to associate low solar activity with potential cold.
At the 3-minute mark, the BBC reporter asks the key question: “Does a decline in solar activity mean plunging temperatures for decades to come?” For an answer the BBC interviews three scientists.
Scientist Dr Lucie Green actually thinks that low solar activity could affect the climate, but she isn’t sure “to what extent“, and then even points out that varying amounts of solar radiation impact the globe’s upper atmosphere and that this is something scientists “don’t fully understand“. Therefore, don’t rule anything out.
“Fastest solar decline in 10,000 years”!
At the 4:17 mark, Mike Lockwood says we are witnessing the fastest decline in 10,000 years. He then claims that there’s a close to 20% chance that we may be actually entering a Maunder-like minimum. As one of the scientists who is more than 95% sure that man is now causing the climate change, 20% seems to be a very high figure and so we might suspect Lockwood’s true probability figure to be much higher than 20%.
Note how Lockwood does his best to portray solar impacts on climate as being regional phenomena, affecting the Jet Stream and Europe’s climate, but not the global mean climate. Lockwood here is not being completely forthcoming.
Who is old enough to remember Y2K? I remember it well (translation: i’m old).
Y2K is an acronym for “Year 2000,” or, as it was also known – “The Year 2000 problem, the Y2K problem, the Millennium bug, the Y2K bug, or simply Y2K.” (source) It was the moment when the clocks struck 12:00 AM on Janury 1, 2000 and how it might affect every aspect of our lives. Why?
The year 2000 was a problem for many computers because many computer programs stored years using only the last two digits of the year; for example, 1980 was stored as “80″, the year 1999 was stored as “99″ and the year 2000 would be stored as “00″.
Do you see the problem? Not only did such systems view the year 2000 as “00″, but they also viewed the year 1900 as “00″. Imagine what would happen to half your programs if your computer suddenly thought the current year (2013) was actually the year 1913. Your calendar program, your watch, your smart phone and many other programs we rely on would suddenly be all wacked out. Imagine what would happen to the banking system if this glitch occurred. Would you be able to access your money? Would all your checks suddenly bounce? (On the other hand, maybe the banks would suddenly give us 100 years of accrued interest. But i digress …)
Now imagine if such a glitch were to occur in bigger systems like nuclear electric plants and nuclear weapons? What might go wrong? This is what had a lot of people in a near state of panic.
Would telephone systems shutdown? Would the electric grid turn off across the country – plunging all of us into darkness for an indeterminant amount of time? Would trains run on schedule? Would the air traffic control system lose control? Would our nuclear arsenal behave in some unpredicted manner and cause WWIII? Would the nuclear arsenal in some other country malfunction and bomb us?
It seemed nobody knew for sure what would – or would not – happen. People were concerned and scared.
Enter my favorite moron – Alex Jones.
On New Year’s Eve 1999, the night the clocks were due to change over to the year 2000, The Alex Jones show engaged in some of the most negligent, egregious and irresponsible scare mongering ever. I don’t know of a worse case than this.
In the 3 hours Jones was on the air, he made every conceivable claim of catastrophe imaginable. He took everything people were fearing about Y2K and he claimed those fears were materializing. Everything from cash machines failing, nuclear power plants shutting down, concentration camps (with shackles) being readied, empty grocery store shelves, gas stations out of gas, Martial Law declared, the military serving search warrants in 77 Texas counties – to an actual nuclear missile attack!!!!!!!!
And did any of this actually occur? No. None of it. People were so frightened they reportedly headed for the hills (literally) and got physically sick.
Bill Cooper’s original broadcast was 3 hours long. In the Alex Jones recording i present below, except for the opening 30 seconds, i have edited out all of Bill Cooper’s narratives so you can hear Alex Jones uninterrupted in all his despicable glory.
As i was going through the audio, i noticed breaks in the Alex Jones audio that i assume were done by Bill Cooper’s editing team in preparation for broadcast. Where ever i believed there was an edit i added a half-second “beep” sound. This is to help avoid confusion as the conversation would sometimes abruptly change topics. So listen for the beeps (you can’t miss them).
Below the audio you will find a complete transcript of notes i made of what to expect in the audio. This will help you follow along. Where ever you see the word “Regurgitation,” that is my own shorthand to indicate it is a previously mentioned point being repeated by Jones – a tactic he uses to give the impression he has a pile of information. Any words [inside brackets] are commentaries i made for myself.
Believe me, this is an audio clip Alex Jones wishes would go away.
Mason I. Bilderberg.
P.S. If anybody knows where i can find a copy of the full 3 hour Alex Jones Show from 12/31/1999 please let me know.
P.P.S. I apologize in advance for any spelling errors.
Alex Jones Y2K (30 minutes):
0:00 Bill Cooper sets up the scene.
0:27 Cash machines are failing in Britain and other European countries
0:32 Finding large amounts of explosives in France
1:03 More wars then in the last 50 years is going on right now
Russian Hinds Helicopter
1:07 The war in chechnya is raging with hundreds of thousands dying
1:13 20,000 to 40,000 civilians trapped in the city [presumably chechnya]
1:16 Russian Hinds (Helicopter) are being shot down, tanks are being blown to bits
1:26 Air and artillery bombardments [presumably chechnya]
1:39 Pennsylvania nuclear plant (Limerick Generating Station) has been shut down [implied because of Y2K-related problems. Not true. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) findings are contained in the image, below]
1:49 The shelves (In TX) are empty of water and gas stations are running out of fuel
1:50 In Minneapolis and Texas the shortwave (radio) is down
2:50 The Pennsylvania nuclear plant and (now) 4 other nuclear plants were having Y2K-related problems [See 3:04 mark]
3:12 The government in Washington D.C. has set up a $50M command bunker that is hooked into FEMA and they can take over all the shortwave (radio), AM/FM radio stations and all television and other broadcast stations
3:34 The police and military [presumably nationwide] are on high alert
3:41 The military are highly visible [presumably in the streets]
3:45 Trains of military equipment moving into Austin, TX
3:53 The airport (Robert Mueller Airport) will be used as a massive holding facility [ala concentration camps]
4:03 Vladimir Putin is a demon
A Topol-M mobile launcher.
4:12 Now 6 to 7 (nuclear) reactors having Y2K related problems [Not true]
4:50 Globalist Forces are gearing up to clamp down on America, Russia and the world
5:08 America is gearing up and bracing for terrorism and militarizing everything in front of us.
6:00 They (Russia) have deployed their missiles and submarines against us (America).
6:09 Vladimir Putin, who just took over as Russian President, has “taken the codes off” Russia’s nuclear arsenal. (The Russian nuclear arsenal no longer requires a secret code to initiate a nuclear missile attack on America.)
6:25 Discussing America being hit with a nuclear first-strike and the ensuing annihilation.
7:27 Regurgitation: Pennsylvania Electric Company (PECO), Limerick Generating Station (here and here) was shutdown [presumably because of Y2K-related problems. Not true. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) findings are contained in the image, below].
7:38 Doesn’t challenge a caller paraphrasing (Colonel) Bo Gritz who said, that Russia said, if their (Russia) power goes out they will blame us and they (Russia) would set off their nuclear arsenal.
8:01 The Russians are threatening to nuke us every, single week.
8:25 Currencies around the world are plunging
8:39 Gas stations in America are out of gas
8:58 American’s are standing up as Russia threatens to attack us with nuclear weapons
9:02 Nuclear power plants are being shutdown
9:07 The military is “running around” with the police and the FBI saying terrorism is imminent [the takeover is beginning]
9:25 “They” have activated a powerful, cold war, radar system in the north pole region [presumably to keep an eye out for a Russian ICBM attack] that is affecting shortwave (radio)
9:46 Military traffic is EVERYWHERE
9:52 Regurgitation: Super power, cold war radar systems (presumably to keep an eye out for a Russian ICBM attack) and nuclear systems are up.
10:07 Fresno (California?) is blacked out, he (Jones) is off the internet
10:25 [Scare tactic, Survivalist Commercial]
11:03 “America is under siege right now.”
11:14 Regurgitation: Pennsylvania nuclear power plant shutdown
11:33 Egypt is having a run on the banks
11:45 Regurgitation: The power in Fresno (California?) is down, he is off the internet
11:50 Regurgitation: Cash machines and ATMs in Europe are having problems
12:03 Martial Law signs are posted on highway 65 in Arkansas by the Arkansas Transportation Department
21:18 There are “shackles on the ground, concreted into the ground” at Robert Mueller Airport – like a slave galley.
21:42 New Zealand is having power outages
21:57 Regurgitation: Pennsylvania nuclear power plant shutdown
22:33 Regurgitation: Vladimir Putin threatens to nuke us
22:50 Regurgitation: Pennsylvania nuclear power plant shutdown
22:55 The power is off in 8 different areas across the country
22:58 A lot of cable systems aren’t working
23:01 Satellites are down
23:09 “Minor fault (???) struck two nuclear power plants in Japan just seconds after the clock ticked into 2000 …”
23:25 Anybody near a nuclear power plant should pack up and go someplace else.
23:37 The store shelves are bare in Austin, TX.
23:43 Regurgitation: Gas is running out.
23:44 They’re announcing on the news that, “if you’re bad they’re going to put you in a … they’re going to bolt you to a pipe coming out of the ground at the airport (Robert Mueller Airport) in some cold hangar.”
24:04 “The military is serving search warrants now in 77 Texas counties.”
24:08 Regurgitation: “We got nuclear power plants shutting down.”
24:20 Regurgitation: The Russians are threatening to nuke us RIGHT NOW.
24:40 Regurgitation: “Well, they got the Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) and LAVs (Light Armored Vehicles) loading on the flat cars out of Fort Hood.”
25:06 There are currently nuclear missiles being launched.
25:15 ABC (news) just had a special news bulletin – a military General standing in front of Cheyenne Mountain (nuclear bunker) announced 5 nuclear missiles have been launched.
25:44 The general refused to say what kind of missiles, where they were coming from or where they were going.
25:58 This secrecy is just like when the special operations training that was conducted with the Russians in south TX when they burned buildings and laying siege to towns [never happend]
26:44 Jones’ co-host: “You elect me to president and i will nuke them (Russians) first, i’ll push the button as soon as i take the oath … i’m opening up that football and start launching, man.”
26:55 Regurgitation: The Russians have been threatening to nuke us, they reserve the first strike right to hit us for no reason and Clinton said he will absorb the first strike by the Russians.
27:06 Jones’ co-host: Hopes one of those 5 incoming nuclear missiles is headed towards Clinton.
28:20 The perceived enemy is “obviously” the American people.
28:36 Regurgitation: It’s on ABC news that 5 nuclear missiles have been launched.
28:57 The night before (12/30/99), anything and everything on the flight line at Selfridge Air National Guard Base was put into the air and was constantly in the air. [i.e. The U.S. is preparing for a nuclear attack]
29:11 Regurgitation: Super power, cold war radar systems [presumably to keep an eye out for a Russian ICBM attack] are turned on.
29:21 The Russians are not the only ones we need to be concerned about … we should worry about the Chinese too.
20:24 We also need to be worried about Germany.
29:58 Regurgitation: It’s on ABC news that 5 nuclear missiles have been launched.
And yet, as Slate’s Jeremy Stahl points out, millions of Americans hold these beliefs. In a Zogby poll taken six years ago, only 64 percent of U.S. adults agreed that the attacks “caught US intelligence and military forces off guard.” More than 30 percent chose a different conclusion: that “certain elements in the US government knew the attacks were coming but consciously let them proceed for various political, military, and economic motives,” or that these government elements “actively planned or assisted some aspects of the attacks.”
How can this be? How can so many people, in the name of skepticism, promote so many absurdities?
The answer is that people who suspect conspiracies aren’t really skeptics. Like the rest of us, they’re selective doubters. They favor a worldview, which they uncritically defend. But their worldview isn’t about God, values, freedom, or equality. It’s about the omnipotence of elites.
Conspiracy chatter was once dismissed as mental illness. But the prevalence of such belief, documented in surveys, has forced scholars to take it more seriously. Conspiracy theory psychology is becoming an empirical field with a broader mission: to understand why so many people embrace this way of interpreting history. As you’d expect, distrust turns out to be an important factor. But it’s not the kind of distrust that cultivates critical thinking.
Not all scientists are panicking about global warming — one of them finds the alarmism “hilarious.”
A top climate scientist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology lambasted a new report by the UN’s climate bureaucracy that blamed mankind as the main cause of global warming and whitewashed the fact that there has been a hiatus in warming for the last 15 years.
“I think that the latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence,” Dr. Richard LindzentoldClimate Depot, a global warming skeptic news site. “They are proclaiming increased confidence in their models as the discrepancies between their models and observations increase.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claimed it was 95 percent sure that global warming was mainly driven by human burning of fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gases. The I.P.C.C. also glossed over the fact that the Earth has not warmed in the past 15 years, arguing that the heat was absorbed by the ocean.
“Their excuse for the absence of warming over the past 17 years is that the heat is hiding in the deep ocean,” Lindzen added. “However, this is simply an admission that the models fail to simulate the exchanges of heat between the surface layers and the deeper oceans.”
“However, it is this heat transport that plays a major role in natural internal variability of climate, and the IPCC assertions that observed warming can be attributed to man depend crucially on their assertion that these models accurately simulate natural internal variability,” Lindzen continued. “Thus, they now, somewhat obscurely, admit that their crucial assumption was totally unjustified.”
Scientists have been struggling to explain the 15-year hiatus in global warming, and governments have been urging them to whitewash the fact that temperatures have not been rising because such data would impact the upcoming climate negotiations in 2015.