I was in a discussion forum and somebody asked me to explain The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. I started typing when i remembered a video from several years ago that will explain it better than i can write it.
Enjoy, my friend 🙂
April 15th, 1865: America’s greatest President meets a tragic, violent end. Confederate sympathizer John Wilkes Booth is known as the man who pulled the trigger – but who helped him, and what was the real motive?
The Misconception: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect.
The Truth: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause.
Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were both presidents of the United States, elected 100 years apart. Both were shot and killed by assassins who were known by three names with 15 letters, John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, and neither killer would make it to trial.
Spooky, huh? It gets better.
Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy, and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln.
They were both killed on a Friday while sitting next to their wives, Lincoln in the Ford Theater, Kennedy in a Lincoln made by Ford.
Both men were succeeded by a man named Johnson – Andrew for Lincoln and Lyndon for Kennedy. Andrew was born in 1808. Lyndon in 1908.
What are the odds?
In 1898, Morgan Robertson wrote a novel titled “Futility.”
Written 14 years before the Titanic sank, 11 years before construction on the vessel even began, the similarities between the book and the real event are eerie.
The novel describes a giant boat called the Titan which everyone considers unsinkable. It is the largest ever created, and inside it seems like a luxury hotel – just like the as yet unbuilt Titanic.
Titan had only 20 lifeboats, half than it needed should the great ship sink. The Titanic had 24, also half than it needed.
In the book, the Titan hits an iceberg in April 400 miles from Newfoundland. The Titanic, years later, would do the same in the same month in the same place.
The Titan sinks, and more than half of the passengers die, just as with the Titanic. The number of people on board who die in the book and the number in the future accident are nearly identical.
The similarities don’t stop there. The fictional Titan and the real Titanic both had three propellers and two masts. Both had a capacity of 3,000 people. Both hit the iceberg close to midnight.
Did Robertson have a premonition? I mean, what are the odds?
In the 1500s, Nostradamus wrote:
Bêtes farouches de faim fleuves tranner
Plus part du champ encore Hister sera, En caige de fer le grand sera treisner, Quand rien enfant de Germain observa.
This is often translated to:
Beasts wild with hunger will cross the rivers, The greater part of the battle will be against Hister. He will cause great men to be dragged in a cage of iron, When the son of Germany obeys no law.
That’s rather creepy, considering this seems to describe a guy with a tiny mustache born about 400 years later. Here is another prophecy:
Out of the deepest part of the west of Europe, From poor people a young child shall be born, Who with his tongue shall seduce many people, His fame shall increase in the Eastern Kingdom.
Wow. Hister certainly sounds like Hitler, and that second quatrain seems to drive it home. Actually, Many of Nostradamus’ predictions are about a guy from Germania who wages a great war and dies mysteriously.
What are the odds?
If any of this seems too amazing to be coincidence, too odd to be random, too similar to be chance, you are not so smart.
You see, in all three examples the barn was already peppered with holes. You just drew bullseyes around the spots where the holes clustered together.
Allow me to explain.
Via The Local France
One in ten French people believe the Earth may be flat and 16 percent think the US faked its moon landings, according to a new survey, which tested some of the most famous ones on a group of 1,200 people. Here’s what’s else they believe.
The poll by the Ifop group on behalf of the Fondation Jean Jaures think-tank and the Conspiracy Watch organisation found that large sections of French society believed in theories with no grounding in established fact.
One of the best-known conspiracy theories — that the CIA was involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 — was believed by 54 percent of respondents, while 16 percent thought America had faked its moon landings.
A cause for concern to France’s current centrist government, the most widely-held theory was that the health ministry was conspiring with pharmaceutical companies to conceal the danger of vaccines.
A total of 55 percent of respondents agreed with this — at a time when the government has raised the number of obligatory vaccines to 11 from three for all newborns to combat a resurgence in some illnesses.
“I hope that… our country will return to the rationality that has always been its marker,” Health Minister Agnes Buzyn pleaded last Friday, adding that France was “a global exception” when it came to opposition to vaccines.
Top 10 Craziest Conspiracy Theories About the ILLUMINATI
This is an awesome documentary. Every minute is worth watching. – MIB
My favorite exchange between the interviewer (Matt Shea) and one of the (alleged) targeted individuals (Shane) begins at 26:33 into the video:
Targeted Individual: Everybody gets a stroke of bad luck every now and then, but to have it continual, to have it continuous … something is going on here.
Matt Shea: Of course there are some people who are just really, really, really unlucky.
Targeted Individual: Would you say somebody defecating in my bed is unlucky?
Matt Shea: Why would … ?
Targeted Individual: Why would I shit in my own bed? Seriously.
Matt Shea: Why would the government shit in your bed?
Targeted Individual: Or, why would the free masons shit in my bed?
Matt Shea: Why would ANYONE shit in your bed?
Targeted Individual: Exactly. Why?
Also see: I’m Being Cyber Stalked, Wiretapped and Followed (iLLuMiNuTTi.com)
Also See: Photo Forensics: Is The Lee Harvey Oswald Photo A Fake? (iLLuMiNuTTi.com)
By Estelle Thurtle via Listverse
10 • Brittany Murphy
In late 2009, celebrity blogger Perez Hilton predicted that Brittany Murphy would be the next shocking Hollywood death. Less than a month later, his prediction came true as the actress passed away after going into cardiac arrest. The official autopsy report ruled that the actress’s death was natural, resulting from a combination of pneumonia and anemia. Just three months later, Murphy’s husband, Simon Monjack, also passed away. The coroner found that he also died of a combination of pneumonia and anemia, although some believe that drug abuse or toxic mold were the real culprits.
In 2012, a much stranger conspiracy theory reared its head in the form of a controversial documentary featuring a friend of Murphy’s named Julia Davis. A former employee of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Davis alleges that DHS began trying to silence her after she became a whistleblower over immigration failings on the Mexican border. According to Davis, the government decided to target Murphy as well after she publicly defended her friend, even trying to have the British Monjack deported from America.
An American journalist, Alex Ben Block, also jumped on the conspiracy bandwagon, claiming that Simon Monjack relayed fears to him about being under constant surveillance. According to Block, Brittany Murphy died just a few days after her husband spoke to him. The craziness doesn’t stop there—Asif Akbar, the director of the documentary, claims that he and his family were also targeted by Homeland Security. Murphy’s estranged father is on the record as saying he believes his daughter was poisoned. Murphy’s mother, on the other hand, remains skeptical, calling the allegations an “inexcusable” attempt to cash in on her daughter’s death.
9 • Paul Walker
In 2013, the world was shocked to hear that Fast & Furious star Paul Walker had died in a tragic car crash. Walker and his friend Roger Rodas were driving through Santa Clarita in a Porsche GT when Rodas lost control of the vehicle and collided with a tree. Both men were killed after the car burst into flames.
But online conspiracy theorists quickly decided that there was more to the story than that. Walker had worked tirelessly to raise funds for the victims of Typhoon Haiyan, and a series of online postings soon began alleging that he must have discovered some terrible secret about the relief effort. The slightly saner version involves “dirty money” being laundered through aid donations, while the original posters insisted that Walker had learned of a secret plan to slip permanent birth control drugs into shipments of food and medicine to the Philippines.
Either way, Walker naturally leaped into his friend’s Porsche and raced to warn the world of the dastardly conspiracy. But “they were betrayed and someone rigged their car’s brakes to malfunction after a certain speed.”
If only Walker had watched Family Guy the week before, he would surely have been warned. According to one conspiracy theorist, the show predicted Walker’s death by killing off Brian Griffin (the dog) just a few days before the accident. The name of Walker’s character in the Fast & Furious movies? Brian. Q.E.D.
8 • Robin Williams
The death of beloved star Robin Williams is one of the saddest Hollywood tragedies in recent memory. The man who made the world laugh in such classics as Mrs. Doubtfire and Aladdin took his own life on August 11, 2014.
It was heartbreaking news, but the Internet’s finest conspiracy theorists knew there was no time to mourn. Within hours of his death, claims had begun to emerge that Williams had been murdered by the Illuminati . . . for some reason. Probably as a “sacrifice” for some sort of “ritual to the devil.” Then, weirdly, Family Guy was brought into the mix again.
Shortly before the news of Williams’ death was announced, the BBC had rebroadcast an episode of the animated show in which main character Peter Griffin gains the power to turn everyone he touches into Robin Williams. Naturally, this couldn’t be a coincidence, with Twitter users insisting that the show was being used to “predict” the death. The only question remaining is just why the Illuminati love Family Guy so much.